King of the GMs

In an article that sets quantative analysis in sports back by at least a decade, Forbes.com has declared 76ers GM Billy King to be the 3rd best General Manager in professional sports. (The same survey ranked T-Wolves GM Kevin McHale, who has repeated failed to assemble a decent supporting case for Kevin Garnett, at #1.) Forbes arrived at its results through a ridiculous "formula" which compared a team's regular season winning percentage under its current GM against the last three seasons of the GM's predecessor, factoring in salary "containment." King ranks near the top of Forbes list because (1) the 76ers won a whopping .260 of their games in the three seasons before he formally became GM in 1997, and (2) Larry Brown and Allen Iverson led the 76ers to the playoffs for 5 of the next 6 seasons. Thus, according to Forbes, King is a genius. Therefore, according to common sense, Forbes has no idea what its talking about.

The most obvious problem with the Forbes formula is that it wholly ignores championships or post-season success. For example, the Forbes system would rate the 2005 Super Bowl champion Steelers as less succesfull than the previous year's 15-1 team that fell short. But the central assumption that skews Forbes' results is that a team's prior record is a useful surrogate for the challenges faced by an incoming GM. To the contrary, many critical factors of future success (e.g. the age of key players, avaialbility of high draft picks and cap space) vary radically between teams with similar won-loss records. These are all reasons why the Forbes model cannot compare GMs within sports, let alone between them.

So what then can we say about the Billy King years? Forbes is right that a GM should be judged based not only the ultimate results, but also on the resources he had to work with. Absent a complex statistical model the best we can do is simply evaluate the actual moves he made - the draft picks, contracts and trades that he made.

Any analysis of King needs to put aside the Larry Brown era from 1998-2003, where Brown was de facto GM. King deserves neither the credit for Brown's on-court brilliance nor the blame for Brown's myopic personell decisions. King inherited from Brown a flawed squad that had been eliminated in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Iverson was in his prime, but the 76ers principal additional "assets" were Keith Van Horn, who had recently flamed out in the playoffs, undersized power forward Kenny Thomas and defensive stalwarts McKie and Snow, both on the wrong side of 30. In addition, Brown left King with no cap space and no draft picks in 2 of the next three drafts. On the whole, a perfect time for Brown to jump off a sinking ship.

The Draft

King has had only 2 first rounders in 4 years, none higher than #9. With these picks, King has found a very good (if not great) player in Andre Iguodala and legitimate shooting specialist/6th man in Kyle Korver. Rodney Carney has not impressed in his rookie year, but along with Louis Williams has potential. Grade: B+.


Contracts


King inked three outright horrible deals - resigning Coleman to $9 million a year at age 36, commiting more than $50 million plus over 7 years to the mediocre Thomas and a mid-level deal to end-of-bencher Brian Skinner. (Only Willie Green's injury saved King from adding a fourth to that list.) King's arguably overpayed enigmatic center Samuel Dalembert and Korver as well, but given their youth and the market for players with their skills these deals are defensible. The extension of Iverson to a max deal was something than any GM in the league would have done. Grade: D+.


Trades


The only reason why Van Horn and a 1st rounder for a washed up Glenn Robinson and Marc Jackson wasn't a complete disaster was the provision that kicked in this year that let the 76ers substitute cash for the pick. The Webber deal didn't work on the court, but cleaned up King's messes by getting rid of the Thomas, Skinner and Corliss Williamson (who was acquired for Coleman). Finally, King waited far too long to trade Iverson and in return received Andre Miller, Joe Smith and 2 late 1st round picks - which if the 76ers post-trade .500 play has shown to be too much present talent and not enough potential. Grade: C-


Overall


An exceptional GM might have rebuilt a contender around Iverson; a good GM certainly would have gotten more in return for the Answer. But King's inclusion in the Sports Guy's Bad GM Summit may not be fully earned either. The post-Iverson 76ers appear to be a good draft away from competing for a playoff spot in the East. On the other hand, the odds of the 76ers landing a player they can build another championship run around seems very long. Grade: C-

PATRIOTS 24, EAGLES 21

3 Points. 3 Lousy Points the difference between the ending of 44 seasons of failure from sweet victory.
It was a gut-wrenching loss in so many ways. Unlike in years past, the Patriots did not come with their A game. The Eagles, therefore, did not need to have brought an A game of their own, merely to have played good solid football with minimal errors. Instead the Birds played a wildly inconsistent game, marked by stretches of brilliance and marred by costly mistakes.

The defense started the game tremendously, shutting down the Pats running attack and knocking Brady out of sync. But the Patriots, as always, adjusted, and were able to move the ball from the middle of the 2nd quarter on. Blitzes were picked up, Deion Branch ran wild, and the D folded three times in the red zone. Still, with the game on the line, the defense rose to the occassion, preventing the game-ending TD, and forcing two critical stops during the thwarted comeback.

The offense rose to even greater heights and sank to even greater lows. After a rocky opening series, the Eagles spent most of the 1st half on the Patriots side of the field. Terrell Owens made all of the nose-bleed pundits who took potshots at him for his valiant rehab look petty and foolish. He was not the dominant force that he is at 100%, but he was at least 81%, and despite his limitations a major factor in the short and medium passing game. The much maligned Todd Pinkston made the 2nd most spectacular catch of the night (unfortunately the top honor must go to Branch's leaping catch over Sheldon Brown) and succesfully stretched the field, while the emerging Greg Lewis made a major impact in his limited time on the field. And Brian Westbrook, despite being stymied as a rusher and returner, proved as dangerous a receiver as always during the game tying 3rd quarter drive.

But in the end the Eagles went as far as McNabb could take them. I cannot recall another QB having as roller-coaster a Super Bowl as McNabb. He made some spectular throws, the scrambling bomb to Pinkston, the two red-zone bullets fired threaded through a needle to LJ Smith and Westbrook, and the perfectly tossed deep post to Lewis. But for stretches of the game he reverted to the old McNabb, as scattershot as he's been in a year and a half - missing low, high and wide, bringing the Eagles West Coast attack to a screeching halt despite the fact that Reid and company had found the soft spots in the Patriots defense. Even worse were the questionable decison-making, ranging from the lame duck toss in the end-zone early in the game to the torpid "five-minute drill" offense late in the game (although to be fair, there are reports that McNabb was playing through exhaustion or dehydration to the point of "puking" during the last two drives).

Even worse was the game by Andy Reid. The clock-management on the final drives of each half were unprecedently bad for a coach who rarely makes mistakes as a result of oversight (case in point - the successful early challenge that reversed a McNabb fumble). Rather than trust his defense with getting the ball back, Reid gambled on the on-side kick, and then doubled down with a dubious decision not to send a returned deep for the final punt.

I imagine, therefore, that plenty of idiots have been calling WIP in the past 48 hours, asking for the heads of the Eagles QB and head coach. To who I say - suck it up! If it weren't for McNabb and Reid, you wouldn't have any conference championship or Super Bowl losses to complain about. Do you forget the likes of Ty Detmer, Rodney Peete and Bobby Hoying under center, or Rich Kotite or Marion Cambpell on the headset. What about the collosal underachievement of Randall Cunnigham and Buddy Ryan, who could never get a star-studded group to one NFC championship, let alone four straight and a Super Bowl.

I know how heartbroken we all are right now. I am glad I went home for the game - if nothing more than to see Eagles green at every corner. I clearly did not have an original idea, as I was joined by a dejected mob of green on the train back to New York. But in the end, there must be perspective - and hope. The 2004 Eagles gave all of us a great run. Unlike the 1980 Birds, they did not wither away on the big stage, but instead almost pulled off a major upset of this era's greatest team. They fell 3 points short. But so long as they have Donovan McNabb in his prime and Reid at the helm, they will remian contenders. The Eagles will be back to Super Bowl, perhaps as early as next year, and next time McNabb and Reid will perform at their standard level of excellence. And at last the Philadelphians will have the parade we've waited for for so long. E-A-G-L-E-S !!!

E-A-G-L-E-S: THE NIGHT BEFORE THE BIG GAME

The last time the Eagles went to the Super Bowl, I was certain they were
going to win. After all, I had just witnessed my heroes smash the hated Cowboys in the NFC Championship. I can still remember from my perch in the 500 level of the frozen Vet, wearing the #17 of the great Harold Carmichael, the Birds defense smother Tony Dorsett and pound Danny White, and Wilbert Montgomery bursting to daylight, leaving Dallas defenders in the dust. After such domination, what was there to fear from some wild-card Raiders team that after all, we had beaten early in the year. I was absolutely certain we would win. I was also 7.

But it was not to be. The defining memories of that game are of course, are of Jaworski tossing interceptions to Raiders LB Rod Martin, and the screen pass that Kenny King somehow broke for a long TD. Every big play went against the Eagles, and Raiders prevailed 27-10. Older and wiser, it is easy to explain what happened. The Eagles had peaked emotionally with a win over Dallas, Vermeil's manic energy, rather than inspiring over-achieving as usual, instead led to a tight, skittish crew. A team that had won all year with its defense, and a low-risk, ball-control offense, made mistakes and fell behind early. And those Eagles were not built for playing come from behind football.

The Vermeil Eagles fizzled out without ever making another title run. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the Reggie White-Randall Cunningham Eagles, teased but underachieved in the playoffs. A combination of Ryan's awful offensive gameplanning (1989 and 1990) and lakefront fog (1988) and injury (1991) halted the team at its peak. The Ray Rhodes Eagles of the mid-90s were solid clubs that never flirted with greatness.

The same cannot be said of the Eagles latest run. The Eagles of Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have had sustained periods of greatness for the past four seasons, but have until now, fallen short of the Super Bowl.

So will these Eagles finally win the team's first NFL title of my liftime? Will they ultimately end the suffering of the Eagles Nation and defeat the favored, defending champion Patriots in Super Bowl XXXIX?

My head says that while they have a fighting chance, that its more likely than not the error-free Pats will prevail. My heart says absolutely - that we are more than overdue, and this game is the Eagles date with destiny.

I believe that the Eagles' underrated defense will rise up and shine in this game. That they will continue to do what they do best - prevent big plays, and keep teams out of the endzone. Corey Dillon will get his yards, and Brady might move the chains, but on the whole the Pats will be contained to a 1 or 2 TDs and a number of Vinatiri FGs. What will determine the game is the ability of the Eagles offense to aggressively challenge the Patriots defense without turning the ball over. The Patriots will most likely try to muscle the Eagles wideouts, and drop the LBs into coverage to clog the short routes and contain Westbrook. The Eagles will a superlative performance by McNabb, one in which he thwarts the Patriots cover schemes with his scrambling and takes advantage of the opportunities when the wideouts are able to release long, all without being forced into an uncharacteristic interception.

I have faith that McNabb will come through with an MVP performance, that Owens will make at least one spectacular play that will justify all the hype, that Dawkins will jar at least one ball loose from a Patriots receiver, that Kearse will disrupt Brady's timing, that Trotter will stuff Dillon on a critical third down, that Westbrook will break off at least one game-breaking run, reception or return, that Akers will make a clutch FG, that Reid, Childress and Johnson will match Belicek, Weis and Crennel, adjustment for adjustment. I believe, no I am absolutely certain they will prevail - in fact, 24 years later, I haven't changed a bit.

Eagles 23 Patriots 19.

MCNABB HEADING FOR ELWAY'S FATE?


My beloved Eagles have now reached their 3rd straight NFC championship, and for the second year in a row at home. On the plus side from last year is that the Eagles have a healthy McNabb, playing at the top of his game. On the minus side, they also enter the game without their gamebreaking scatback (Westbrook), top linebacker (Emmons), half their defensive line rotation, and with their best corner (Vincent) banged up.


Which means in a odd way they currently resemble a late-80s Broncos team, one with a do-everything QB with a so-so supporting cast on offense (substitute Staley, Pinkston et al. for Gerald Wilhite, Vance Johnson and co.) and a good, but not great defense led by a hard-hitting safety (substitute Dawkins for Steve Atwater) who because the front 7 isn't dominant has to make more than his share of tackles. The result I believe will be quite similar. McNabb will heroically lift the Eagles over the hump to the Super Bowl, only for them to get soundly beat by a more-complete team led by a stingy defense (the Patriots, with Tom Brady playing the role of Phil Simms). I hope I am right this Sunday and wrong SuperBowl Sunday. After all, the long suffering fans of Philadelphia are long overdue.

E-A-G-L-E-S


For the 3rd straight year, one game from the Super Bowl after McNabb's fantastic performance (and the not-so-fantastic performance of the Pack's coaching staff) in the clutch.

FAREWELL, TUGGER


A moment of silence for the late, great Tug McGraw, who provided me with my greatest sports memory - his leap of joy off the mound at the end of Phillies one and only World Series championship in 1980, which as a giddy 7-year old, I watched from the right-field bleachers of the late, not-so-great Vet. He live forever in the hearts of Phillies (and even Met) fans everywhere.

OTP SPORTS: 2003-04 NBA PREVIEW


Will Larry Brown be able to handle having players that can actually shoot? Will Allen Iverson be able to handle not having Larry Brown, but having a teammate who can actually shoot (and wants to in the clutch)? Can Jeff Van Gundy teach the Rocket guards how to pass? Will the post-Stockton-to-Malone Jazz break 80 points a game? Will LeBron match Tracy McGrady’s rookie numbers and still be called a disappointment? Will anyone pay attention to something other than the Kobe trial before the playoffs? Will Shaw run out of nicknames beginning with the Big? All this and more coming soon to a court near you....


THE FAVORITES: Will win the championship if....

(1) Lakers: ....Kobe is free & Shaq is healthy. Shaq rules the paint, Shaq rules the paint. But the Spurs won the West, the Spurs won the West. Shaq came back in shape, Shaq came back in shape... Any prediction that short of the obvious two pitfalls the Lakers will fail is wishful thinking.

WESTERN CONTENDERS: Will take advantage of a Lakers disaster if....

(2) Spurs: ....at least 2 of their 3 perimeter Euro-stars raise their games to the next level & Rasho fills Robinson’s void at least on offense. Hedo Turkoglu manages to accomplish something that successive Turkish governments have failed at for years, getting Turkey considered part of Europe.

(3) Kings: ....Miller, Divac, Webber, Stojokovic, Christie, Bibby and Jackson are healthy throughout their playoff run. There’s no reason in particular why the 20 games a year they are at full strength can’t be during the playoffs.

(4) Timberwolves: ....Spreewell is still a shut-down perimeter defender & Garnett rubs off on the Kandi Man. Whether or not this T-Wolves team threatens the top contenders over the next couple of years is really a question of what happens quicker - Olowokandi’s development or the veteran backcourt’s decline.

(5) Mavericks: ....Fortson & Bradley become a dominant rebounding/shot-blocking combination OR the NBA starts scoring by fantasy points. Combined shots per game last season of the Mavericks projected starting five: 88. Combined shots per game last season of entire Mavericks team: 85. Take away some hair, add some pot - and you’ve got the TrailBlazers of a couple of years ago - with similar disappointing results.

WESTERN PACK: Will make the playoffs if:

(6) Suns: ....Stoudemire does not regress from his break-out rookie season OR they get descent center play out of their latest Euro experiment at center. As long as Marbury continues his new-found romance with passing, they will be an entertaining donut team - which is what the Suns are supposed to be - right?

(7) Trailblazers: ....figure out how to get Randolph and Wallace on the court together as much as possible & either Stoudamire or McInnis remembers how they used to play point guard. Everybody loves to talk about how the Blazers collapsed when their chemistry went south, but the reality of the matter is that the Blazers ceased being contenders when Sabonis, who was a dominant talent even past-his-prime, lost one more critical step. Another season of an abudance of talent at 2-through-4 wasted by ineffective play at center and the point.

(8) Rockets: ....run the offense through the very tall, sweet-shooting, agile Chinese man rather than gunning up 3s & Get steady play at forward. The odds are that Jim Jackson will provide steady play at small forward, supplemented by defensive specialist Adrian Griffin. The mess is power forward, where their potential third star, Eddie Griffin, will be spending at least the beginning of the season working out “personal issues." Left with the fragile and board-phobic Maurice Taylor as a running mate, Yao may have to wait one more year before camping out in the postseason.

(9) Supersonics: ....Radmanovic has a breakout season & Jerome James does as well. Led by Ray Allen’s Everlasting Gobstopper of a shot, the Sonics perimeter players are good enough to get them into the playoffs. However, they better not miss, because its anyone’s guess as to who in the Sonics mediocre frontcourt will consistently get a rebound or slow down one of the conference’s super-dreadnoughts.

(10) Grizzlies: ....the Wright-Tsalkidas-Swift combo forms an effective center rotation & Mike Miller matches his hype. I don’t envy Hubie Brown the task of figuring out how to divide 96 minutes a game between Miller, Shane Battier, James Posey, Wesley Person, Troy Bell, Dahntay Jones and Michael Dickerson (the poor man’s Grant Hill). On the other hand, I’m not the Logo, so I’ll just shut up now.

WESTERN LONGSHOTS: Will be watchable if...

(11) Warriors: ....Dunleavy develops OR Van Exel plays instead of pouts. Between Murphy’s shot and Richardson’s quicks, a motivated Van Exel is good enough to keep them competitive. But the odds are that the team does not recover from losing its two big guns from last year, and that their new point guard will be screaming for a trade by the end of the calender year.

(12) Nuggets: ....Anthony is ready to score 18-20 a game right away & Marcus Camby is healthy for 2/3 of the season. No matter what, the Nuggets will be more watchable than last year’s plucky bunch which excelled at ugly ball. And heck if Camby is actual healthy for most of the season, and Andre Miller regains his mojo, they would be competitive for a playoff spot - in the East.

(13) Clippers: .....Quentin Richardson rediscovers his shot & either Jaric or Dooling develop ahead of schedule. Forget about the “success” of the Clippers off-season. Elton Brand is still a top 5-power forward, but the supporting cast around him is erratic at best. Positive thinking can’t bring the ball up the court and create open shots.

(14) Jazz: ....you watch old footage of Stockton-to-Malone OR Keon Clark suddenly turns into a young Shawn Kemp. Despite the gritty, fundamentally solid play of Harping, and the potential of Kirlenko, it is going to be a long, long season in Utah.



LEASTERN PRETENDERS: Will lose in the Finals if....

(1) Nets: ....‘Zo is 75% of the old ‘Zo & K-Mart shakes off last years Finals. The Nets should move to Brooklyn. In one fell swoop, the franchise would regain its street cred and New Yorkers wouldn’t have to feel guilty about abandoning the woeful Knicks to watch entertaining basketball. That being said, if the Mourning gamble works as well as the Mutumbo gamble did last year, the continued development of Jefferson and Martin will not hold off the Pistons or Pacers, let alone steal them a game or two in the Finals against what will undoubtedly be a tougher Western foe this year.

(2) Pistons: ....Larry Brown decides making 3-point shots is consistent with “playing the game the right way” & the young perimeter players buy into the system. We all know how talented Brown is at getting the most out of hard-working, smart, second-tier players (see Snow & McKie), and that he can also to a lesser extent improve the game of passionate, undisciplined superstars (see Iverson). But what we haven’t seen is Brown maximizing the talents of softer, skilled players who are less adept on defense (see Tim Thomas, Kukoc, Van Horn). Can Brown adapt his plan to the talents of Billups, Hamilton and Okur? If not, they won’t ever take the next step.

(3) Pacers: ....Pollard & Foster make up for the loss of Miller’s toughness, and Carlisle molds the talented swingmen into a consistent supporting cast. At what point do Al Harrington and Jonathan Bender go from being not-yets to nevers? Well, it’s only fair to see how they do with decent coaching. Isaiah - great point guard, great prophet, as a coach, not-so-hot.

EASTERN PACK: Will make the playoffs if....

(4) Magic: ....McGrady’s back holds up. This is no longer a one-man band. It what seems to be a running theme this season, the top two players in the supporting cast play at the same position, but if they figure out how to use Howard and Gooden at the same time, they get to the second round this time.

(5) Sixers: ....The frontline holds up. Its time to let go of the idea of the Sixers as a defensive team. In the past three years, they’ve replaced a front court of Mutumbo, Hill, Lynch, and Geiger with Coleman, Thomas, Robinson and Jackson, in each case gaining offense and losing defense. The Sixers have to rely on their backcourt for defensive pressure, which is why their playoff runs the past couple of seasons skid to a halt whenever Snow and/or McKie lose a step with an injury.

(6) Hornets: ....Tim Floyd is not as inept as his Chicago record. A healthy Hornets squad can compete within anyone in the East. It is also an oxymoron. Two years ago it was Mashburn, last year Davis. The bench, with the acquisition of Darrel Armstrong notwithstanding, it paper-thin and will again keep this team mired in the Eastern pack.

(7) Bulls: ....Curry and Chandler keep developing & Rose doesn’t have a meltdown. The Bulls look to be two years away from challenging for the East, but with the best young bigs in the conference will get half way there this year, and perhaps farther if Pippen is healthy for the playoff run.

(8) Raptors:...Vince is healthy & Moiso or Bosh develops into a shotblocking force. The odds are that by midseason, the “what happened to Vince Carter” talk will be replaced by “when did Antonio Davis get that old” talk.

(9) Celtics:...Raef Lafrentz looks for his shot & Vin Baker’s comeback is real. The Celtics physically have one of the strongest frontcourts in the conference in Battie, LaFrentz and Baker. Mentally is another story, and the odds of both of their talented underachieving big men finally achieving is a long shot.

(10) Wizards:...A big (Brown or Haywood) & a swingman (Hayes, Hughes, or Jeffries) develops this season. Arenas will earn his paycheck, and so will Stackhouse if his injury isn’t too severe. The key will be whether or how the collection of lottery picks pans out. The sweet shooting Hayes will most likely force his way into the rotation and be part of the solution. Whether the light-bulb goes off inside Kwame Brown is a whole nother story.

(11) Knicks....McDyess is healthy and 90% of the player he used to be OR Mutumbo can give them 20 minutes a night of vintage Deke dominance. Neither of these rosy scenarios seems likely. Fortunately for the rest of the league, the Knicks quick-fix approach, nor their status of least bang-for-the-buck professional sports franchise, doesn’t seem to be ending any time soon.

EASTERN LONGSHOTS: Will be watchable if...

(12) Cavaliers: ....LeBron is on the court. Enough LeBron. If Ilgauskas stays healthy, this team has an outside shot at a playoff spot. But when the big Z is out of the game, the Cavs collection of blacktop all-stars (Miles, Wagner, Davis) will give Paul Silas nightly headdaches.

(13) Heat: ....they spend the entire game on a fast break. Who doesn’t like swingmen - with their athlteticism and versatility, they are much more enjoyable to watch then the lumbering giants or point guards that dunk once a season, but Miami’s plan to put 4 on the court (with a power forward, mind you not even a real center) at the same time isn’t going to get them very far. The good news is that some team that needs a guy who can score might be able to trade a lumbering big-man for Eddie Jones or Dwayne Wade in the middle of the year.

(14) Bucks: ....If they find a legitimate starting power forward or center. Between Redd, Mason and Thomas they’ll score, but they will easily be the worst defensive team in the league this season. Write it down - the Mavericks will break 150 points against this team.

(15) Hawks:...If they have the Theo Ratliff of 3 years ago in the paint the whole year. By the middle of February, Stephen Jackson will be shooting somewhere around 40%, half the frontcourt will be on the IL, and Terry and Abdur-Rahim will be routinely combining for more than 50 points in blowout losses.

WESTERN CONFERNECE FINALS: Lakers over Spurs
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS: Nets over Pistons
FINALS: Lakers over Nets

OTP 2002-03 NBA PREVIEW

Will you be able to hear the phrase "4-peat" without throwing something at the TV? Will the Mavs score 200 points in a game? Will the Knicks drive Spike Lee away from his courtside seats? Will Alan Iverson go to practice? Will Grant Hill finally stay healthy? Will Jordan actually come off the bench? Will Yao Ming be the next Rik Smits - or the next Shawn Bradley? And finally, will anybody stop the Lakers....all this and more coming to an NBA court near you.

Western Contenders - can win it all if:
1) Kings: Adding Clark keeps Vlade fresh for the playoffs, and doesn’t lead to a shortage of playing time for Pollard, Turkoglu and the rest of the stellar bench.
2) Lakers: Shaq’s big toe heals, the supporting cast continues to raise their games in the post-season
3) Mavs: Najera, Griffin and Popeye Jones provide provide enough D to complement the awesome O.
4) Spurs: The global backcourt of Parker and Ginobili reaches its potential this year; The Admiral has one last great playoff run left in him.

Western Pack - could make the playoffs if:
5) Trail Blazers: Figure out a rotation and stick to it (in other words, get decent value for Stoudamire)
6) Clippers: Somebody other than Brand and Miller is looking to win, rather than just get paid next year.
7) Rockets: No more migraine for Stevie; Mobley and Griffin improve their shot selection
8) Supersonics: Payton’s grousing doesn’t impact his play; Lewis & Radmanovic combine for 30 a game.
9) Jazz: Kirilenko takes a major step forward; Harping finds his stroke
10) T-Wolves: The Nesterovic/Jackson combo provides them with quality pivot-play; Troy Hudson manages a Terrell Brandon impersonation.

Western Longshots - will be watchable if:
11) Grizzlies: Jason Williams figures out that he should stop gunning and simply feed Gasol, Gooden and Battier
12) Suns: Their young players (Johnson and Stoudemire) grow up quickly
13) Warriors: They put together a lineup that’s not less than the sum of its parts.
14) Nuggets: They’re playing your team, and you like to watch blow-outs.

Eastern "Contenders" - could lose in the finals if:
1) Hornets: Davis doesn’t become a gunner, Mashburn is healthy for the playoff run
2) Pacers: Tinsley cuts down on his turnovers, Isaiah gets them to play with passion
3) Nets: Martin and Jefferson rise faster than Mutumbo declines
4) Sixers: Iverson passes to Van Horn; the center-by-committee (Macculloch, Coleman, Dalembert) is healthy for the playoff run


Eastern Pack - can make the playoffs if:
5) Pistons: Their D-first approach rubs off on Hamilton; Robinson & Rebraca continue to provide points in the pivot.
6) Magic: Hill comes back, OR they get something out their big men
7) Bucks: They stop bickering and just play; Thomas fills the Big Dog’s shoes
8) Raptors: Wilkens cobbles a bench together, Carter plays with fire
9) Celtics: Walker and Pierce can cover for the lack of a point guard
10) Wizards: MJ plays the entire year; one the young big guys (Heyward, Brown, Thomas) develops.
11) Hawks: Ratliff stays on the floor, they find enough shots to share between Terry, Robinson and Abdur-Rahim


Eastern Longshots - will be watchable if:
12) Bulls: The kids (Curry,Chandler, and Williams) grow up fast
13) Heat: Discover a big man other than Grant who can play, Caron Butler really is the next Paul Pierce.
14) Knicks: If you are a masochistic Knicks fan, if you want to teach a lesson on how not to manage an NBA franchise
15) Cavaliers: If you like flashy, glitzy dunks by teams that are trailing by double digits.


Conference Finals: Kings over Lakers, Hornets over Sixers
Finals: Kings over Hornets